THE ECONOMY
By Yaw Yeboah
2nd January, 2022
The COVID–19 pandemic significantly curtailed Ghana’s economic growth momentum. Real GDP growth was estimated to decelerate from 6.5% in 2019 to 1.7% in 2020, due to the slump in oil prices and weakened global economic activity. Nonetheless, growth will be sustained by a budding recovery in construction and manufacturing sectors, combined with favorable gold and cocoa prices. Inflation is expected to reach 10% in 2020 from 8.7% in 2019 due to pandemic-related interruptions in supply chains and expansionary monetary policy aimed at mitigating the economic impacts of COVID–19. The fiscal deficit is expected to widen to 10.5% of GDP in 2020 from 4.8% in 2019 due to revenue shortfall from weak economic activity and unanticipated increased health expenditure. The current account deficit is expected to narrow to 2.5% of GDP in 2020 from 2.8% in 2019 because of reduced demand for imports. Foreign exchange reserves maintained the previous year’s level of 4.0 months of import cover as of October 2020. The Ghana cedi depreciated by 3.1% in 2020, compared with a 10% depreciation in 2019. Ghana remains at high risk of debt distress in the International Monetary Fund’s 2019 Debt Sustainability Analysis because of solvency and liquidity risks. The public debt-to-GDP ratio reached 71% in September 2020 from 63% a year earlier. A banking sector reform, including recapitalization of banks and liquidation of insolvent financial institutions, has enhanced the overall resilience of the sector. Firm and household surveys reveal that during the partial lockdown, about 770,000 individuals experienced reduced wages, and 42,000 lost their jobs.
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